Overview
Purpose
NSFM (Non-parametric Seasonal Forecast Model) is a non-parametric seasonal forecasting model that forecasts continuous exceedance probabilities of streamflow (or any other hydroclimate variable).
NSFM forecasts the exceedance probabilities of streamflow several months ahead by exploiting the lag relationship between streamflow and ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) and the serial correlation in streamflow.
Target user group
NSFM is designed for hydrologists, managers of storage systems, water users, consultants and researchers to facilitate probabilistic forecasting of streamflow several months ahead.
Complexity
NSFM is relatively easy to use. Some basic understanding of probability is required to interpret the results from NSFM.
Example applications
NSFM can be used to forecast streamflow (or reservoir inflow or any other hydroclimate variable) several months ahead. Probabilistic streamflow forecasts can be used to provide probabilistic indication of future water allocation or water availability to make better informed risk-based decisions for farm and crop management, and to make better operational decisions on management of storage systems and water allocation for competing users.
Overview of features, advantage and benefits
